{"id":118052,"date":"2026-10-30T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-10-30T08:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cambrabcn.org\/?post_type=study&p=118052"},"modified":"2026-11-03T12:57:52","modified_gmt":"2026-11-03T10:57:52","slug":"informe-trimestral-de-coyuntura-catalana-2026","status":"publish","type":"study","link":"https:\/\/cambrabcn.org\/es\/informe-trimestral-de-coyuntura-catalana-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Informe trimestral de coyuntura catalana | 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n

El Informe de Coyuntura Catalana del cuarto trimestre de 2026 actualiza las previsiones econ\u00f3micas anuales para 2026 y 2027 y estima la evoluci\u00f3n del PIB durante el tercer y cuarto trimestre de 2026. La conclusi\u00f3n del informe es que la Cambra revisa al alza la previsi\u00f3n de crecimiento del PIB hasta el 2,8% en 2026 y el 2,0% en 2027, tres y dos d\u00e9cimas m\u00e1s que en las previsiones de julio, respectivamente<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Accede a la\u00a0nota de prensa<\/a><\/mark><\/strong> del IV trimestre de 2026 y a la presentaci\u00f3n del Informe trimestral de coyuntura catalana<\/a><\/mark><\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n
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PREVISIONES DE CRECIMIENTO<\/mark><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

PIB anual. Catalu\u00f1a <\/strong>(%, tasa de variaci\u00f3n interanual)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

(p) Previsi\u00f3n Cambra y AQR
Fuente<\/strong>:<\/strong> Cambra de Barcelona y AQR-Lab<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\n
\n

La Cambra revisa al alza la previsi\u00f3n de crecimiento hasta el 2,8% en 2026 y el 2,0% en 2027<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n

La revisi\u00f3n de tres d\u00e9cimas para 2026 responde al buen comportamiento del PIB durante el primer semestre, al impulso del turismo y a la inercia del consumo de los hogares. Aun as\u00ed, se prev\u00e9 que el crecimiento se modere gradualmente durante la segunda mitad del a\u00f1o. <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n
\n
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INFLACI\u00d3N<\/mark><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Inflaci\u00f3n. Catalu\u00f1a <\/strong> (Tasas de variaci\u00f3n interanuales, en %)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Fuente<\/strong>:<\/strong>\u00a0Idescat<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\n
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La inflaci\u00f3n repunta hasta el 4,5% en septiembre, impulsada por los precios energ\u00e9ticos<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Se prev\u00e9 que la inflaci\u00f3n se sit\u00fae en el 3,7% en 2026 y en el 3,4% en 2027, por encima del objetivo del BCE. Los precios de
los productos energ\u00e9ticos (+19,4% interanual) contin\u00faan impulsando la inflaci\u00f3n, y se prev\u00e9 que el BCE suba los tipos de inter\u00e9s dos veces m\u00e1s en los pr\u00f3ximos trimestres. <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n
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SECTOR EXTERIOR<\/mark><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Despesa declarada dels turistes estrangers<\/strong> \r\n(Variaci\u00f3 interanual, en %. Preus constants. MM 3 mesos)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Fuente:<\/strong> Idescat<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n
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El turismo compensa parcialmente el estancamiento de las exportaciones de bienes<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n

El gasto de los turistas extranjeros crece un 5,2% interanual en agosto, a precios constantes. El turismo ha registrado un nuevo r\u00e9cord de llegadas y de gasto entre enero y agosto, favorecido por las tensiones en mercados competidores. En cambio, las exportaciones no tur\u00edsticas pr\u00e1cticamente se han estancado.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n
\n
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CATALU\u00d1A VERSUS MADRID<\/mark><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Ratio de personas ocupadas por poblaci\u00f3n<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Fuente<\/strong>:<\/strong> INE<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\n
\n

La brecha de PIB per c\u00e1pita con Madrid se ampl\u00eda, pero no por una menor productividad<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n

El PIB per c\u00e1pita catal\u00e1n ha pasado del 94 % del madrile\u00f1o en 2000 al 83% en 2025, mientras que la productividad se mantiene estable (96,8%). La diferencia se explica por la ratio de ocupados sobre poblaci\u00f3n: 49,5% en Catalu\u00f1a y 57,7% en Madrid. En parte, se debe a los trabajadores que trabajan en Madrid, pero viven fuera.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Sobre el Informe de coyuntura econ\u00f3mica catalana<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

El Informe de coyuntura catalana es una publicaci\u00f3n trimestral elaborada por el Gabinete de Estudios Econ\u00f3micos de la C\u00e1mara de Comercio de Barcelona y el Laboratorio de Transferencia de An\u00e1lisis Cuantitativo Regional de la Universidad de Barcelona (AQR-Lab), con el objetivo de realizar un seguimiento sistem\u00e1tico de la econom\u00eda catalana.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El an\u00e1lisis recoge una serie de estad\u00edsticas, tanto propias como obtenidas de fuentes oficiales, que permiten medir los principales indicadores econ\u00f3micos como el empleo, las exportaciones, el turismo, la inflaci\u00f3n y la Encuesta de Clima Empresarial. Asimismo, incluye un apartado de previsiones de crecimiento del PIB tanto trimestral como anual. Los informes tambi\u00e9n cuentan con apartados monogr\u00e1ficos dedicados a indicadores concretos ligados a la actualidad econ\u00f3mica, con un an\u00e1lisis m\u00e1s detallado de su situaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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